Overview
The attached paper looks at real-world options pricing data and tries to use this to infer the probability distribution of expected returns. The method proposed does not seem to be ideal. It is simplistic in its handling of the extreme values, and its application can lead to strange results in some cases (demonstrated in the paper). Nonetheless, it provides one method for looking at options prices to see if these can be used to predict future prices and is able to produce sensible predictions for the value of the stock examined.